Extreme windstorms and sting jets in convection-permitting climate simulations over Europe
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract Extra-tropical windstorms are one of the costliest natural hazards affecting Europe, and that develop a sting jet extremely damaging. A is mesoscale core very high wind speeds occurs in Shapiro–Keyser type cyclones, high-resolution models required to adequately model jets. Here, we low-cost methodology automatically detect jets, using characteristic warm seclusion cyclones slantwise descent speeds, within pan-European 2.2 km convection-permitting climate (CPM) simulations. The representation gusts improved with respect ERA-Interim reanalysis data compared observations; this linked better cold conveyor belts jets CPM. Our analysis indicates those most damaging present future climates. frequency extreme projected increase by 2100 large contribution comes from storms. Furthermore, their changes underestimated global (GCM) We conclude CPM adds value winds surface can provide input for impact coarser resolution models.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Climate Dynamics
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['0930-7575', '1432-0894']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06011-4